What now for Celtic and Brendan Rodgers? Pt 1 Legitimate goals for the season ahead

Well, the season which surpassed all understanding is done. Breathtaking, astonishing, Roy-of-the-Rovers stuff, topped off by Tom Rogic showing that his appreciation of high drama is as sharp as his shooting.

To all who played a part at Celtic Park over the past 12 months, thank you, well done and stay healthy. You’ll be getting calls for commemorative events in 20, 25, 30, 40 and 50 years time.

Now, to next season with hopes burning brightly and eyes on more glittering prizes.

But what should we realistically expect? (The silly season in the Scottish football media – is there any other kind? – will bring reported diktats from Desmond, swoops from down south and signing speculation to make you weep. Most of it will be unfounded garbage, much like the rest of this article.

Targets

Firstly, targeting the treble is usually ridiculous. Don’t get this wrong – Celtic should always intend to win any domestic tournament the club enters. But to expect to win all three again is just foolish.

Much as a self-confident man may truly believe that he has a reasonable chance of dating any of three desirable partners, it would be plain daft to be disappointed at not securing the romantic attentions of all three at the same time.

The smart man will direct his attentions to the best of the three and hope that, if disappointed, the next best will not prove to be out of reach. (It would be stretching the analogy to say that we should only hope to win one cup.)

It can be done but probably won’t. If Celtic end another season unbeaten, we should all wait for the space ships to take us away from this doomed planet as it would surely be a sign that the powers that kept the world turning were broken.

But to win the League and do so comfortably must be the number one target. The “comfort” part is important. Daylight between Celtic and Aberdeen (probably 15-20 points at the season’s end) takes pressure off players, allows some to be rested for what should be the late rounds of the Scottish Cup and lets Brendan Rodgers preserve some of the key performers by sparing them the last 15-30 minutes of games when their bodies are spent.

Prediction: 1st Celtic – P 38 W 29 D 6 L 3 Pts 93 (Stats based on the “Guff” system of football forecasting.

Scottish Cup

Having (hopefully) won the league in April, we should be red hot favourites to lift the Scottish Cup to make it a double.

By that time, we should be able to focus on the late rounds with the luxury of not needing points or defending an unbeaten run.

Who would we face in the final? Probably Aberdeen or Hibs, who I expect to make a real go of it in their return to the top division, possibly finishing third behind Aberdeen.

The major likelihood of avoiding one of these in the final would be if we were drawn away from home to both in the early rounds. Cups, of course, reflect the luck of the draw as well as form and Hearts, The Rangers or St Johnstone or a few others could all feature.

League Cup

This is the least prestigious of the three tournaments and the one most likely to lead to disappointment, ending any hopes of back-to-back trebles.

Again, Aberdeen or Hibs seem like the most probable winners, but any team in the top flight has a chance, including the two smaller Glasgow clubs.

The major reason for this is that Celtic are likely to be heavily-involved in European competition and strongly focussed on the League campaign. Something usually gives in those circumstances, with players on the fringes of the first team likely to feature.

So, with Celtic’s the scalp that everyone wants to take, a “shock” exit around the semis or quarter-finals seems a strong possibility.
Prediction:
Headlines such as: “Celtic have been shown not to be infrangible – other teams now know how to beat them.”

“Shock cup exit shows cracks in the Rodgers master-plan.”

Europe

“ I think we can win the Big Cup. Semi-finals, at least. Maybe the quarters.”
We all know the guy from the pub. He’s the same one who always answers: “11 Jimmy Johnstones” when chat turns to picking your all-time greatest football team.

Tell him (it’s invariably a he) to get a grip.

We are very good, our improvement has been beyond what just about any of us could ever have hoped for – but the gap in the league table doesn’t reflect how close we are to being a top European side.

Put your cuppa down because we’re not up to that standard – yet. But we’ll get better.

The thing about playing significantly inferior teams four times is that you can emphasise your (notional) 40% superiority four times a season. Celtic were 30 points better than the second-placed team but how well would Aberdeen do in any of the top German, Spanish, Italian, French or English leagues?

They’d almost certainly be relegated.

The Dutch, Portuguese, Belgian or Russian leagues, for example? Probably around mid-table.

So, don’t make the last season’s heroics an albatross around Brendan Rodgers’s neck. Champions league qualification is not assured by any means.
We’ll probably go into the last qualifying round as favourites with odds, depending on the opposition of somewhere around 55-70% success.

In the best-case scenario, we’ll have a tough tie with a real possibility of going out.

Personally, I think we’ll get there because of the improvement we’ve already seen, the fitness and cohesion of the squad, the quality we possess and – above all – the fact that we have a top-quality manager and coaching team.

But there will be a few butterflies.

We should realistically aim to qualify for the group stages and then be playing for 3 or 4th place. And that’s where I think we’ll be.

That will probably be clear after four matches, should we qualify. If we are in with a chance of second place after match four and secure third overall, that would represent a highly-successful season.

We could then look forward to some intriguing match-ups in the Europa League.

Looking ahead

What is perhaps more interesting is the longer-term targets – over Brendan’s seasons three, four and five.

In the past 14 years, we have reached a UEFA Cup Final and the last 16 of the Champions League twice. Be in no doubt that Brendan will want to go one better.

That would entail, obviously, reaching the last eight of the Champions League or winning the Europa League.

Targeting the Champions League last 16 should be for season 2018/19.

But for the last eight or a Europa League win, look to 2020/21.

That’s a major task but it should be where we hope our trajectory to take us.

So, for next season: a League and Scottish Cup double with a 3rd-place finish in the Champions League and a respectable showing in the Europa.

No pressure!

Coming soon -- Pt 2: Squad ins and outs to achieve our goals.
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